Dry weather conditions intensifying across Horizons Region

Horizons group manager regional services and information Ged Shirley says Earth Sciences NZ is forecasting a significant El Niño weather event to impact the country from now until well into 2027.

“Earth Sciences NZ is forecasting the intensity of this El Niño event to more likely than not be the strongest on modern record.

“We are seeing the impact of El Niño now, with our rainfall monitoring network showing actual rainfall across the Horizons Region as being well below average for the past four months.”

This comes on the back of three years of drier-than-normal weather conditions across the region, says Mr Shirley.

“While there have been large rain events in this time, data collected from our monitoring network shows we have not seen the consistent rain required to meet average rainfall totals.”

This lack of rainfall has impacted groundwater sources, with Horizons’ groundwater monitoring network showing deficits compared to the long-term average, says Mr Shirley.

“Our Rangitīkei, Turakina, and Manawatū groundwater monitoring sites are especially dry at the moment.

“Increased wind, higher temperatures and lower levels of rainfall are forecast for the foreseeable future due to El Niño, with Manawatū, Rangitīkei and Tararua districts forecast to be most affected.”

Mr Shirley says now is the time for people to start preparing for a dry summer.

“We know many farmers and growers have been taking steps to be prepared for a drier summer, but we are encouraging everyone to take it seriously – especially those with stock to care for – including lifestyle block owners. 

“Being prepared can include checking water tanks, pumps, troughs and pipes to ensure the water you have is stored safely and used efficiently, irrigating to keep soil moisture levels up before drier conditions take hold, and considering land use for the coming months.”

Horizons will be monitoring the situation and has created a dry weather hub on its website to make it easy to access data and information about conditions, says Mr Shirley.

“This hub is a one-stop shop for people wanting information about dry weather conditions in the Horizons Region. This hub will be regularly updated as conditions change, and we are working to create a data dashboard that visualises conditions across different parts of the region.  

“We operate an extensive environmental monitoring network, with more than 800 sites collecting data on rainfall, river heights and flows, groundwater levels and much more. Presenting this data in easy-to-understand ways will help to make it easier for people to make informed decisions.

“Our Emergency Management staff are in close contact with their counterparts at other councils across the region, as well as the rural sector and Rural Support Trusts via the Rural Coordination Group. The Rural Coordination Group leads a range of agencies in the primary industries to prepare for and respond to adverse events.

For more information, see https://www.horizons.govt.nz/farmers-toolkit/dry-weather-hub.